Monsoon 2012 Recap

Rain in downtown Phoenix

Rain on a north-facing window at ASU’s Walter Cronkite School of Journalism in downtown Phoenix during a daytime storm in September 2012.

Monsoon 2012 delivered slightly more rain to Phoenix than the average, according to the National Weather Service. The above photo was taken near downtown Phoenix, during one of the last storms of the monsoon. One of relatively few rain events to occur during daylight hours happened on Friday, September 7.

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Break or bust?

The weather forecast for the southern half of the state calls for sunny weather with steady highs for the next week, along with low relative humidity. As of September 16, it’s too early to call the end of the Arizona monsoon (which officially ends on Sept. 30), but forecasts at the end of next week will indicate whether we’re currently in the midst of a break cycle, or if we’ve seen that last of what’s been a just above-average monsoon, at least for some parts of the state. Check back next week for a recap.

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First snow of Winter 2012 in CO

Accuweather.com just reported the season’s first snowfall in the Rockies.

The eastern Sawatch Mountains and western Mosquito Range of Colorado will be whitened by snow above 11,000 feet with the heaviest snow expected above 12,000 feet.

Meanwhile, the National Weather Service is watching for weak El Nino weather patterns to emerge in September, and continue throughout the season:

Most of the dynamical models, along with roughly one-half of the statistical models, now predict the onset of El Niño beginning in August-October 2012, persisting through the remainder of the year.

El Nino prediction model from the National Weather Service

The next ENSO discussion will be released by the CPC on October 4, 2012. Look for an updated snowfall forecast then.

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