El Nino forecast for 2012: Neutral/Weak El Nino

Sea Surface Temperature for 9-26-12

Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies for 9-26-12 – from the Climate Prediction Center

The Climate Prediction Center continued its forecast for a weak El Nino or neutral conditions this winter, based on barely above-average temperatures observed in the Pacific. The analysis notes that it’s possible that El Nino conditions could strengthen in the next few months.

The Arizona impact of this is that Arizona’s winter weather conditions are likely to be influenced by El Nino conditions in a very minimal way. This doesn’t mean winter precipitation in Arizona will be near-average, however. ENSO (El Nino – Southern Oscillation) conditions are only one factor that might help predict the amount of precipitation across Arizona. ENSO-neutral conditions basically tell us that precipitation (as well as temperatures) in Arizona could be less than, at, or above average, depending on other factors.

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