El Nino forecast for 2012: Neutral/Weak El Nino

Sea Surface Temperature for 9-26-12

Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies for 9-26-12 – from the Climate Prediction Center

The Climate Prediction Center continued its forecast for a weak El Nino or neutral conditions this winter, based on barely above-average temperatures observed in the Pacific. The analysis notes that it’s possible that El Nino conditions could strengthen in the next few months.

The Arizona impact of this is that Arizona’s winter weather conditions are likely to be influenced by El Nino conditions in a very minimal way. This doesn’t mean winter precipitation in Arizona will be near-average, however. ENSO (El Nino – Southern Oscillation) conditions are only one factor that might help predict the amount of precipitation across Arizona. ENSO-neutral conditions basically tell us that precipitation (as well as temperatures) in Arizona could be less than, at, or above average, depending on other factors.

Advertisements
This entry was posted in Supply, Weather and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s